Today, Friday June 19, in Switzerland, the formal signing ceremony takes place for the peace deal that ends the US-Iran war — a conflict that began on February 28 and reshaped the gold market for nearly four months. The memorandum of understanding was already signed electronically by President Trump earlier this week and is now in effect. Today’s ceremony makes it formal. For gold buyers and the wider region, this is the moment the single biggest force shaping gold prices in 2026 is officially resolved.

Here is what the deal delivers. The 14-point memorandum establishes an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. It opens a 60-day window of negotiations toward a comprehensive settlement. Most importantly for the gold market, it commits to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the US lifting oil sanctions and the naval blockade already ordered removed by Trump. The actual de-mining and full reopening timeline is still being finalised — the deal opens 60 days of negotiations and the precise Hormuz reopening schedule remains to be confirmed — but the direction is now locked in.

The market impact has already begun. Oil has fallen dramatically as the deal moved toward signing — Brent crude dropped toward $78 per barrel, a three-month low, down from over $100 just weeks ago and well below the wartime peak near $120. This collapse in oil prices is the most important development for gold’s medium-term future, even though it does not lift gold immediately. Here is why: the high oil prices during the war drove inflation to 4.2%, which forced the Federal Reserve into the hawkish stance it confirmed on Wednesday. As oil falls toward $78 and potentially lower, that inflation will fade over the coming months, which will eventually compel the Fed to soften — and that is when gold’s structural forces will drive the price higher.

For now, gold sits around $4,300, caught between the hawkish Fed (bearish short-term) and the falling oil and peace deal (bullish medium-term). The Fed’s hawkishness pushed gold down on Wednesday; the peace signing and falling oil pulled it back above $4,300.

For Gulf jewellery buyers, the end of the war removes the cloud of uncertainty that hung over the market for four months. The region benefits directly from a stable, post-war environment and a reopened Strait of Hormuz. Gold remains 23% below its January record of $5,589, and the structural demand that drove gold to that record — central bank buying, constrained supply, the global shift toward tangible reserves — is fully intact. The war that suppressed gold is over. The recovery, though it may take time as the Fed’s hawkishness works through the system, has a clear path.